Further to our previous advisories, we would like to provide an operational update on the evolving Middle East conflict and its increasing impact on global supply chains.
Since our last communication, the situation has further escalated from an operational and commercial perspective, with additional carrier surcharges, cargo disruptions, and early signs of broader economic impact now being observed.
This update outlines the latest developments and what they mean for New Zealand importers and exporters.
Escalating Impact on New Zealand & Australian Trade
Recent reporting and industry feedback indicate that the disruption is now materially affecting New Zealand exporters, particularly those trading into the Middle East.
Cargo is increasingly being:
- Delayed, diverted or stranded mid-transit
- Subject to “end-of-voyage” declarations, where containers are discharged short of destination
- Exposed to additional recovery, storage and rehandling costs
These conditions are creating significant financial pressure, particularly for exporters of:
- Perishable goods (e.g. chilled and frozen products)
- Agricultural and regional exports
- Time-sensitive cargo with limited shelf life
Industry bodies have also highlighted that emergency surcharges—sometimes exceeding USD 4,000 per container—are now being applied in certain scenarios, in some cases even mid-voyage.
The broader impact is expected to extend beyond exporters, with flow-on effects to consumer pricing and supply chain stability.
Ocean Freight – Further Surcharge Escalation
Ocean carriers continue to expand cost recovery measures in response to fuel volatility, network disruption, and ongoing geopolitical risk.
Since our last update, further escalation has been confirmed:
- CMA CGM has announced a revised Emergency Fuel Surcharge (EFS), effective 27 March 2026, increasing from previously communicated levels due to rapid fuel price escalation. Updated indicative levels include:
- Headhaul trades: ~USD 265 per TEU (Dry) / USD 320 per TEU (Reefer)
- Backhaul trades: ~USD 130 per TEU (Dry) / USD 155 per TEU (Reefer)
- Intra-regional trades: ~USD 130 per TEU (Dry) / USD 155 per TEU (Reefer)
- Additional charges apply for out-of-gauge and breakbulk cargo
- OOCL has implemented a global Emergency Bunker Surcharge (EBS), effective 23 March 2026, with trade-specific rates across Australia and New Zealand lanes.
- Maersk has confirmed a global EBS effective 25 March 2026, with indicative levels of:
- ~USD 200–400 per container (dry cargo, long haul)
- ~USD 300–600 per container (reefer cargo)
These surcharges are in addition to existing war risk, contingency, and peak season charges, and are being:
- Reviewed frequently (typically every 14 days or less)
- Adjusted in line with fuel availability and pricing volatility
- Applied across an increasing number of trade lanes globally
Cargo in Transit – Increased Intervention Required
Carriers are now implementing more structured approaches to manage cargo already moving through impacted regions.
For shipments affected by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, customers may be required to make decisions on:
- Continuing the voyage with temporary storage in transit
- Returning cargo to origin
- Redirecting cargo to an alternative destination
These scenarios may involve:
- Additional freight costs
- Storage charges after initial free periods
- Delays in final delivery timing
This reflects a shift toward active cargo management rather than standard end-to-end execution.
Network Adjustments – Alternative Routing Expanding
There are early signs of network adaptation and partial stabilisation through alternative routing solutions.
- CMA CGM has reopened import bookings into several Middle East countries using multimodal land bridge solutions, including:
- Routing via Jeddah with inland distribution across Gulf countries
- Alternative routing via ports such as Khor Fakkan, Fujairah and Sohar
- Maersk has expanded similar land bridge and inland transport solutions, enabling cargo to move via alternative ports and overland corridors.
While these solutions are improving connectivity, they:
- Add complexity to supply chains
- Increase handling and transport costs
- May extend overall transit times depending on routing
Air Freight – Continued Constraints & Cost Pressure
Air freight markets remain under pressure due to:
- Ongoing airspace restrictions
- Limited capacity from Middle East carriers
- Rising aviation fuel costs
Additionally:
- Fuel surcharges are increasing and being reviewed weekly
- New Transit Disruption Surcharges (TDS) are being introduced to recover rerouting and capacity costs
Capacity between Europe, Asia and New Zealand remains constrained, with limited uplift availability continuing in the short term.
Fuel Markets – Ongoing Volatility Driving Global Costs
The conflict continues to significantly disrupt global fuel supply chains, with:
- Refinery output in parts of the region reduced or constrained
- Alternative fuel sourcing being secured at higher premiums
- Continued upward pressure on bunker fuel and jet fuel pricing
This is now flowing through to:
- Ocean freight (EBS, bunker adjustments)
- Air freight (fuel surcharges, TDS)
- Inland transport (diesel-driven cost increases globally)
- FAF from transporters are now being adjusted Weekly and continue to rise
What This Means for Australian Importers & Exporters
As the situation evolves, clients should expect:
- Sustained upward pressure on freight costs across all modes
- Increased likelihood of shipment disruption or intervention mid-transit
- Longer and less predictable supply chain timelines
- Greater reliance on alternative routing solutions
While core trade lanes (including Europe–New Zealand) remain operational, the commercial environment has materially shifted, with higher costs and reduced predictability now a key feature of the market.
Our Recommendation
In light of these developments, we recommend:
- Building additional flexibility into supply chain planning
- Reviewing cost exposure and contract terms, particularly around surcharges
- Prioritising critical or time-sensitive shipments
- Maintaining close communication with our teams for shipment-specific guidance
Our Ongoing Monitoring
We continue to actively monitor:
- Carrier network changes and routing adjustments
- Surcharge developments across ocean, air and inland transport
- Fuel market movements and cost impacts
- Cargo flow conditions across key global trade lanes
We will continue to provide updates as the situation evolves.
If you have any questions regarding your shipments or future planning, please contact your account manager or customer service representative.